Does neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio predict 1-year mortality in patients with primary biliary cholangitis? Results from a retrospective study with validation cohort

OBJECTIVES Neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) has been used to predict prognosis in various liver diseases, but its role in primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) is not clarified. We aimed to investigate the prognostic usefulness of NLR for 1-year mortality in PBC. METHODS The study recruited a retrospective cohort with 88 patients with PBC and a prospective validation cohort with 63 participants who were followed-up for 1 year. NLR and other laboratory measurements were analysed by multivariate regression model for identifying independent factors for early mortality. The cut-off threshold of NLR was determined by calculating the area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUROC) and used in a subsequent Kaplan-Meier survival analysis. RESULTS Univariate and multivariate analyses showed that Mayo Risk Score (MRS), serum creatinine and NLR were independent indicators for mortality. NLR yielded significantly higher AUROC (0.86) than those of platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio (0.58, p=0.03), but comparable with MRS (0.87, p=0.88). Spearman's correlation analysis represented a positive correlation between escalating NLR and aggravating Child-Pugh grade (r=0.44, p<0.001). Patients with NLR <2.18 exhibited higher survival (with 100% sensitivity and 67.1% specificity) within 1 year follow-up duration, and NLR ≥2.18 was indicative of higher mortality (log-rank test, p<0.001). In addition, these results were internally confirmed by a validation cohort. CONCLUSION NLR is closely related to short-term mortality in patients with PBC.